I've always believed that behavioral economics has played a bigger role than financial data in moving stock prices. Otherwise the market would be incredibly predictable.
Yes, though I keep less than 20% of my portfolio in individual stocks. Everybody sells on bad news, when a stock tanks. Think... pandemonium, or legal battles (Apple, Amazon, Meta), or horrible accidents (oil spills, planes falling apart, cruise ships stuck). I just ask myself the likelihood of the company going out of business. If it's logically zero-ish, I buy.
This was one of the most informative and knowledgeable articles I have read on SubStack recently. It's not your boring cookie-cutter article about politics or the left vs. right propaganda show. Unfortunately, most people won't be able to take advantage of this obvious four-year presidential cycle; instead, they will make comments like you can't time the market or that it's too risky. This doesn't have anything to do with timing the market it's about understanding the macro picture. If you can't discern how Wall Street and "CENTRAL BANKS" operate and collude with each other, then you will not reap the reward. Tim's charts were evident on how cycles work and show that when the fed goes brrrrrr, money depreciates and causes high inflation, which in turn causes an unstable economy and the price of all asset prices to skyrocket. Especially with Trump, he is basically a shoo-in to serve a second term after calling himself the Bitcoin president. Ya I think ill take my chances with crypto and other hard assets.
Yes, I am a firm believer in the entire protocol. It is one of the only hopes the world has to regain its sovereignty from the parasitic entity known as the Federal Reserve, and hopefully, America can lead by example. Ironically, I wrote a small article on the 5 reasons someone should consider owning some in their portfolio. Although, to be quite honest, I don't currently own any Bitcoin, and not to sound negative or go on some long tangent. But I once owned half a Bitcoin and was very proud of my achievement, then sold it all to take some very uncalculated risks that set me way back. But as you had mentioned in your article about 4year presidential cycles all asset classes are about to go hyperbolic, and even though I am currently in a shit situation and basically hit rock bottom in life I am also now in a situation to really make a comeback and will buying as much Bitcoin and other assets to gain exposure to the weakening dollar. My apologies if that was too long of a response but I felt it was necessary for this context
No, it’s not fake. Everyone is wrong = all correlations go to 1! Bitcoin has a 5X correlation to global liquidity. Gold is about 1.5. That means both are worth having. The volatility of bitcoin is harder to bear if it is too big a % of your portfolio. I write about a lot of what you discuss in MacroMatters neilwinward.substack.com. Tim, you definitely don’t need to subscribe!
I put a bunch into gold, for the fact that gold nearly always increases in value. If there is inflation, gold becomes more valuable. Inflation has been climbing, and gold has risen with it.
Tim, I like you using the expression "Stay Invested" if you know what I mean :)
Regarding crypto, I buy Bitcoin every Friday these days. When Yield Farming arrives through crypto exchanges, we'll be able to make money on Bitcoin without ever selling it.
Hi Ryan, the goal is to be able to lend Bitcoin through crypto exchanges at pre-negotiated interest rates. The technology is there but the exchanges need to nail down cybersecurity first (too many of them fall prey to hacker attacks or downright go out of business). It's a cool thing to never have to sell your crypto.
i’m not trying to throw myself a pity party because I don’t invite people to those, but I would like help figuring out Substack and my writing and should I edit myself should I do I need an agent how much money on this all that gets started with where I go to make the quickest money?
Trying to time the market is a fools' game.
Everybody on the street knows exactly these times and they try to get in before the crowd does.
Trying to guess when others will put their money in is usually a very dangerous tactic, which might work for some time.
The problem with it working is that it puts you in a state in which you think you are invincible and that you cracked the code. But you haven't.
The human system is the most complex one and it doesn't behave in any expected manner.
Trying to predict the future based on the past in that case is an incredibly high risk high reward situation.
I would avoid.
Orel, are you saying my approach is timing the market?
Well said Orel.
I like the Monopoly explanation—it's spot on.
Patterns are natural and exist everywhere.
I like to look at the world from a distance and observe social patterns.
Money has its pattern, as do relationships, coworkers, hookup culture, and relatives.
It's so funny to sit alone in a coffee shop, beach, or bar and witness people interact.
Had you seen the monopoly analogy before?
Not as clearly as you showed it.
As a kid, I read Donald Duck and played Monopoly.
Monopoly is not just a game - it reflects how our society works.
When I grew up, I realized that all the characters in Donald Duck are picked from society.
We all recognize Joakim Scrooge McDucks greedy character.
We all know, or are ourselves, a Donald Duck, even if we don't like to admit it.
Patience is a much needed asset. Not only in financial markets.
Applies to everything, especially writing. Are you a patient person?
Although I experience the concept of patience everyday in my gardens, I'm still an apprentice... No, it's not yet my strongest asset.
How about you?
I've always believed that behavioral economics has played a bigger role than financial data in moving stock prices. Otherwise the market would be incredibly predictable.
Have you ever invested money because of any behavioural trends?
Yes, though I keep less than 20% of my portfolio in individual stocks. Everybody sells on bad news, when a stock tanks. Think... pandemonium, or legal battles (Apple, Amazon, Meta), or horrible accidents (oil spills, planes falling apart, cruise ships stuck). I just ask myself the likelihood of the company going out of business. If it's logically zero-ish, I buy.
Agree, the market mostly reflects human’s greed and fear.
Are you taking advantage of it Sol?
Um...greed? That's a negative word, better applied to the boiler room boys. The sole purpose of investing in the stock market is to grow your money.
You are lovely Tim Denning. You have a treasure of great ideas and inspirations.
Thanks Connie. Promise me you won't invest in any of these things because I said them. Okay?
pinky promise.
“markets move so as to confound rule makers” - John Maynard Keynes
Interesting. How do we change this? Bitcoin?
Infinite money glitch only sounds good for people who value their time.
Can you share about what you mean?
I’ll write about it.
This was one of the most informative and knowledgeable articles I have read on SubStack recently. It's not your boring cookie-cutter article about politics or the left vs. right propaganda show. Unfortunately, most people won't be able to take advantage of this obvious four-year presidential cycle; instead, they will make comments like you can't time the market or that it's too risky. This doesn't have anything to do with timing the market it's about understanding the macro picture. If you can't discern how Wall Street and "CENTRAL BANKS" operate and collude with each other, then you will not reap the reward. Tim's charts were evident on how cycles work and show that when the fed goes brrrrrr, money depreciates and causes high inflation, which in turn causes an unstable economy and the price of all asset prices to skyrocket. Especially with Trump, he is basically a shoo-in to serve a second term after calling himself the Bitcoin president. Ya I think ill take my chances with crypto and other hard assets.
Do you invest in Bitcoin yourself Visar?
Yes, I am a firm believer in the entire protocol. It is one of the only hopes the world has to regain its sovereignty from the parasitic entity known as the Federal Reserve, and hopefully, America can lead by example. Ironically, I wrote a small article on the 5 reasons someone should consider owning some in their portfolio. Although, to be quite honest, I don't currently own any Bitcoin, and not to sound negative or go on some long tangent. But I once owned half a Bitcoin and was very proud of my achievement, then sold it all to take some very uncalculated risks that set me way back. But as you had mentioned in your article about 4year presidential cycles all asset classes are about to go hyperbolic, and even though I am currently in a shit situation and basically hit rock bottom in life I am also now in a situation to really make a comeback and will buying as much Bitcoin and other assets to gain exposure to the weakening dollar. My apologies if that was too long of a response but I felt it was necessary for this context
No, it’s not fake. Everyone is wrong = all correlations go to 1! Bitcoin has a 5X correlation to global liquidity. Gold is about 1.5. That means both are worth having. The volatility of bitcoin is harder to bear if it is too big a % of your portfolio. I write about a lot of what you discuss in MacroMatters neilwinward.substack.com. Tim, you definitely don’t need to subscribe!
So glad to read this comment Neil. I know you know this stuff as well. We've gotta spread the word.
I put a bunch into gold, for the fact that gold nearly always increases in value. If there is inflation, gold becomes more valuable. Inflation has been climbing, and gold has risen with it.
Gold is okay as an inflation head but it's a mild performer compared with Bitcoin though. Agree?
I agree 100%. I just like being able to physically hold the wealth. Only precious metals allow that.
Tim, I like you using the expression "Stay Invested" if you know what I mean :)
Regarding crypto, I buy Bitcoin every Friday these days. When Yield Farming arrives through crypto exchanges, we'll be able to make money on Bitcoin without ever selling it.
Curious to hear more about this :-)
Hi Ryan, the goal is to be able to lend Bitcoin through crypto exchanges at pre-negotiated interest rates. The technology is there but the exchanges need to nail down cybersecurity first (too many of them fall prey to hacker attacks or downright go out of business). It's a cool thing to never have to sell your crypto.
This is the future Denis. The fact eth has yield has always been a challenge for bitcoin.
Brilliant. Loved the monopoly screenshot 😆
Thanks and I’ll get back to you in 5 years 😉
Very good.
What did you find helpful?
Love this❤️
How does someone not in the US with negligible income be part of this?
i’m not trying to throw myself a pity party because I don’t invite people to those, but I would like help figuring out Substack and my writing and should I edit myself should I do I need an agent how much money on this all that gets started with where I go to make the quickest money?